ES Market Outlook for Tuesday, March 25
Overview & Key News
In just 30 minutes after the NY market opens, we will be receiving U.S. new home sales and consumer confidence reports. Anticipate some volatility, so it’s advisable to refrain from making early trades.
Previous Day Recap
Monday kicked off with a substantial 22-point gap up, which caught sellers off guard. Following a brief pullback into the buying zone, we achieved all upside targets by the closing bell. The price maintained its position above the breakout area and ventured into September’s value structure.
10-Day Volume Profile
The 10-day profile indicates an expanding market with robust participation. Value has surpassed 5750 and is now exceeding 5816 (the previous period’s Point of Control), establishing a new control zone.
Weekly Volume Profile
The weekly structure has officially shifted to an Uptrend (OTFU). With Friday’s close at 5718, we are progressing toward the upper limit of the previous value range, nearing September’s VAH and beyond. It’s crucial for bulls to defend the breakout zone.
Daily Structure
The daily structure flipped to an OTFU, marking a new low at 5650.75. A consistent pattern of higher lows and highs supports the potential for continued gains, but we must monitor momentum around the 5816–5828 range.
Order Flow & Delta (2-Hour Chart)
We are observing seller absorption in the 5795–5800 zone. Buyers are still dominating, but this area may present temporary resistance. Maintaining position above VWAP is critical today.
NY TPO
On Monday, strong buying activity was evident as we saw a clear extension beyond the balance. An open above 5816 today signals a continuation of bullish momentum.
1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices
Strike prices have expanded, with a high of 5870 and a low of 5600. We are currently trading within the Globex gap (from March 9), with an LVN located at 5811. Anticipate some choppiness here; avoid trading on noise.
Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears
📌 LIS: 5816 – This represents the upper edge of value and a significant inflection point.
- Bulls: Look to go long at 5818, targeting 5828 → 5843 → 5860.
- Bears: Consider shorting at 5812, with targets at 5800 → 5786 → 5765.
Final Thoughts
We find ourselves in a Globex gap and close to a crucial inflection point. Exercise patience and wait for price confirmation. With key news expected post-open, the significant movement may occur later in the session. Avoid rushing into trades.
One response
Response to ES Tuesday, March 25th – Daily ES Market Outlook
Thanks for the detailed breakdown! It looks like we’re in a critical zone today. Keeping an eye on the news coming out post-open is solid advice. Volatility can swing the market quickly, and I agree that it’s best to wait for confirmations.
The recaps and volume profiles highlight the strength on the bull side, but those resistance levels at 5795–5800 could be pivotal. I’ll be watching how we respond at the upper ledge of value at 5816—if we can break through, that bullish continuation seems likely.
Your game plan lays out clear levels for both bulls and bears, which is very helpful. I appreciate the reminder to be patient and watch for clear signals before taking any trades. Here’s to a successful trading day ahead!