ES Daily Market Breakdown – March 11
Another day, another decline. The ES failed to maintain the 5750 level, plummeting through 5720 and extending down to 5574 (September 11 VAL). We now find ourselves at a pivotal moment—will buyers emerge, or is this just another downward leg?
Key News & Events
- JOLTS data set to release before market opens – Anticipated to have minimal impact, but it’s essential to keep an eye on it.
10-Day Volume Profile
- Volume is accumulating below August’s VAL (5648).
- A tight cluster is forming between 5630-5610, coinciding with September’s previous volume buildup.
- This region may act as a reaction zone—watch for possible buying interest here.
Weekly & Daily Chart Structure
- The market remains in a downtrend with Monday’s high recorded at 5757.75.
- September’s POC (5608) has been tested but closed above it.
- A further 100-point drop in value has occurred—proceed with caution on longs without confirmation from higher timeframes.
Order Flow & Delta (2-Hour Chart)
- Selling pressure intensified below 5720.
- Weekly VWAP has also declined by another 100 points, suggesting continued selling activity.
- No significant buying pressure observed—keep an eye on the reaction zones at 5608 and 5630-5610.
Buyers must demonstrate strength before considering any reversals.
NY TPO & Session Structure
- Current range extension indicates a failure to revert to value.
- An opening above 5724 would signal balance, while below 5628 may perpetuate the trend.
- A lot of weak structure persists below 5605—watch for potential clean-up moves.
1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices
- A volume cluster is emerging in the 5608-5624 range.
- Strike prices: High at 5700, low at 5600.
- If we open below 5700, the bearish trend is likely to continue—monitor for potential market reactions.
Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears
LIS: 5608 (September POC & Volume Build Zone)
Bullish Strategy:
- Maintain above 5608 and aim to reclaim yesterday’s POC (5624).
- Targets for longs: 5624 → 5663 → 5682 → 5700.
Bearish Strategy:
- Remain below 5608 to affirm seller dominance.
- Targets for shorts: 5600 → 5571 → 5542 → 5525.
📌 Short positions appear safer unless buyers reclaim 5624+.
Final Thoughts & Precautions
Current market conditions are challenging. If you’re having difficulty with trades, it’s okay to step back.
For those trading:
- Reduce position sizes.
- Avoid taking longs without confirmation from higher timeframes.
- Adjust risk to account for heightened volatility.
Be smart, stay safe, and catch tomorrow’s update!
One response
Great breakdown! The current market dynamics present a challenging but pivotal situation. The key level at 5608 acting as the September Point of Control (POC) is absolutely critical—holding above it could indicate buyer interest, while any sustained move below suggests continued bearish pressure.
The volume clusters you’ve identified around 5608-5624 will indeed serve as important reaction zones; any price action here should be closely monitored for potential reversals. The broader trend seems quite heavy, and your caution against aggressive long positions without HTF confirmation is spot on—it’s better to wait for clear signals.
It’s also interesting to see how the JOLTS data might play into the market open; it could provide a catalyst for movement, although it may not have a significant impact. As always, managing risk during these volatile conditions is crucial. Your game plan for both bulls and bears gives a clear framework for navigating the upcoming sessions.
Let’s hope for the buyers to step in at these critical areas, but maintaining a disciplined approach is the best way to ride out this tough market! Looking forward to seeing how it unfolds in the coming days.