‘I find my strategy incredibly simplistic; is it possible that it is actually effective?’

The simplicity of a trading strategy does not inherently determine its effectiveness or accuracy. In fact, many successful trading strategies are based on straightforward principles that are easy to understand and implement. Here’s how you can evaluate your simplified strategy:
Backtesting: Start by rigorously backtesting your strategy on historical data. This will help you understand how your strategy would have performed under various market conditions. Look for consistent results over a significant period, and be aware of the biases that can arise from data-snooping, overfitting, or survivorship bias.
Risk Management: Ensure that your strategy includes robust risk management techniques. Simple strategies can sometimes overlook nuances, so incorporating stop-loss orders, position sizing, and diversification can help manage potential downsides.
Market Conditions: Assess the market conditions under which your strategy performs well. Simplicity might mean fewer variables, but it’s important to determine if those few variables are affecting your decisions based on current market trends and volatility.
Flexibility and Adaptation: While a simple strategy may work in certain contexts, the market is dynamic. Be open to adapting your strategy over time. Establishing a process for regular review and modification can keep your strategy relevant.
Emotional and Cognitive Load: One benefit of a simple strategy is it reduces the cognitive and emotional load on the trader. Simplicity can help in making decisions faster and more decisively, a vital component in trading. Ensure your strategy aligns with your personality and risk appetite.
External Validation: Seek feedback from experienced traders or mentors. Other perspectives, especially from seasoned traders, can provide insights into your strategy that you may not have considered. They can identify potential weaknesses or corroborate its strengths.

The bottom line is that a simple strategy can be effective if it is well-validated, incorporates sound risk management, adapts to varying market conditions, and suits your individual trading style. Complexity for its own sake isn’t a substitute for efficacy, so don’t discount simplicity; just make sure you’ve done your due diligence.